Random Q&A: Hi GSA: Question, there are too many hot stocks (leader stocks) out there; but why is your Top Stock Pick not a hot stock coming out from another adva...MoreGSA Portfolio Comments IG** (+5%), DG** (+1%), DX** (-0%), MA** (-1%), GX** (-5%), II** (-9%), MR** (-12%), CM** (-17%),  - 2008-08-25: Top Stock Picks candidate **** was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2008-08-15: Top Stock Picks candidate **** was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
Being up 3% to 6% from our original purchase price of ****, we added (pyramided) to this position. - 2008-08-11: Top Stock Picks candidate **** was purchased for the GSA Portfolio. Top Stock Picks candidate **** was purchased for the GSA Portfolio. Top Stock Picks candidate **** was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2008-08-07: Top Stock Picks candidate **** was purchased for the GSA Portfolio. Top Stock Picks candidate **** was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2008-08-04: Top Stock Picks candidate **** was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2008-08-04: This morning, we exited our position in **** for a -12.5% loss.
- 2008-07-30: Our only portfolio holding **** is barely holding up. Fundamentally sales and earnings looked steller in its recent reporting quarter. However, technically, along with other **** stocks, **** does not look strong. Down -8% in this position, we will give it a few more days to see if it improves technically - if not, then we cut our losses and move on.
Market has been rallying strongly last few days. We are seeing an increase in the number of stocks making our database, as well as the number of industry groups with 2 or more stocks close to new highs. However, we still want to give this rally a bit more time to prove itself (we've been shaken out by fake attempts before!). All three major indexes are still below their respective 50-day moving averages, showing poor A/D ranks, so we should wait a bit. Let's remain cautious, patient, observant and let the market come to us, instead of the other way around.
- 2008-06-26: Today we exited our position in **** for a +24% gain (met its profit target in 9+ weeks), **** for a 2% gain (negative price action on earnings), and **** for a -14% loss (violation of trailing stop-loss line).
- 2008-06-21: Friday, we sold our **** holdings for a gain of +28%. **** broke through it's 50-day moving average on strong volume on negative comments by the company regarding post-Olympics ad spending.
We continue to be defensive in this very tough market environment. - 2008-06-10: Today we were stopped out of our positions in **** and ****, for a loss of approximately -10% each.
- 2008-06-09: Top Stock Picks candidate **** was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2008-06-04: Following our Top Picks model portfolio signals, we are going to pyramid into our holding in ****, being up +4.8% to date. **** has been acting right as well, making new highs on strong volume - it is key to watch this action closely, because reversals off a new high often show up clearly on a daily chart. **** has been a good performer for the GSA Portfolio, being up +58% since purchase, plus we are leveraged in it. **** is clinging to it's 50-day moving average, stayin barely above it, and along with the shippers **** and ****, look like our weaker performers. They need a close watch as well.
- 2008-05-28: We need to keep a close watch on Atwood Oceanics (ATW), which is trying to find support at it's 50-day moving average. Being down nearly -10% in ATW, we will exit on any weakness today (Wednesday).
Last week the market showed how extremely volatile it can become. The Dow lost more than 500 points, and was turned back hard from it's 200 day moving average. Most, if not all, of the GSA Portfolio gains since the March lows disappeared. So now, once again we find ourselves playing defense - tight stops, daily vigilance and adherence to our sell rules (poor accumulation / distribution, reversals off new highs, violation of support levels, too far below 52-week highs, etc.)
- 2008-05-27: Today we exited out of positions that had double-digit losses - CF, TNH, GFA, ISRG and PWRD. The market doesn't want to recover after last week's dismal performance.
- 2008-05-23: We sold out our position in FEED for a loss of -18%.
- 2008-05-19: Top Stock Picks candidate Perfect World Co Ltd (PWRD) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2008-05-17: Quick comment on Monday's Top Pick - Perfect World (PWRD) is set to announce earnings before the market opens Monday. Barring a negative announcement, or weak pre-market action in PWRD, we will purchase it at the open.
Market's been kind to the GSA Portfolio of late. The Dow and S&P 500 indices are both up against their 40-week moving averages, and are looking to break through, while the Nasdaq has shown it's leadership and has already broken through last week. Let's see whether this is the start of a bull run that is sustainable.
- 2008-05-13: Good strong day for the GSA Portfolio Monday, with the portfolio up +3.8% vs +1.02% for the Dow. Portfolio was aided by concentrated positions in GNK, DRYS, SOHU and RIMM, each of which makes up approximately 10% of our portfolio. We also pyramided into TTES, being up +3% in this holding. For the benefit of new members, it bears repeating - always buy more shares of your stock holdings that move up, never add to those that you are showing a loss in. With our trade for the morning in NVEC, the portfolio is getting dangerously close to being fully invested. Like in the past, it took only a few weeks to go from 0% to 100% in our investment position. Playing the market is an exercise of constant vigilance. You won't know when things change, if you are not looking.
- 2008-05-13: Top Stock Picks candidate NVE Corp (NVEC) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2008-05-05: Top Stock Picks candidate Gafisa ADR (GFA) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio. Top Stock Picks candidate DryShips Inc (DRYS) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2008-04-21: Top Stock Picks candidate Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd (GNK) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio. Top Stock Picks candidate T 3 Energy Services Inc (TTES) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio. Top Stock Picks candidate Sohu.com Inc (SOHU) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio. Top Stock Picks candidate AgFeed Industries Inc (FEED) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio. Top Stock Picks candidate Terra Nitrogen Co LP (TNH) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio. Top Stock Picks candidate Atwood Oceanics Inc (ATW) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2008-04-21: We will go ahead and pyramid the GSA Portfolio into Research in Motion (RIMM) and Sohu.com Inc (SOHU), both being up +3% from our original purchase point. Also, we saw decent moves in our Top Picks today, with all but one (GNK -0.03), finishing higher on the day. The key is if these moves are sustainable so as to net us meaningful profits.
- 2008-04-20: Based on the action of leading stocks, we are going to get more aggressive in the GSA Portfolio Monday, and are going to stake 5% portfolio positions in the following six top ranked breakout stocks: GNK, TTES, SOHU, FEED, TNH and ATW. Also, we need to watch ISRG closely, since it sold off sharply despite earnings that beat expectations.
- 2008-04-20: Please note - we still own CF in our portfolio, along with RIMM and ISRG.
- 2008-04-15: Following our rules to pyramid into positions that have moved up +3% to +6%, we are going to add to our purchase yesterday of CF Industries Holdings (CF).
- 2008-04-14: Top Stock Picks candidate CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2008-04-04: Top Stock Picks candidate Research in Motion Ltd (RIMM) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2008-04-02: Top Stock Picks candidate Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2008-04-01: We are going to nibble a bit at this market, with a 5% portfolio position in Top Pick Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG). ISRG has shown a decent chart pattern, with a breakout from a 19% base of 15 weeks duration. Our stance needs to be extremely defensive with a tight 7% to 8% stop-loss, given the fact that this rally could either be a short-lived rally within the confines of a bear market, or the start of something new. No one can say for sure, but let's act on the price action of our leading stocks.
- 2008-03-22: Just a brief update - based on the composition of stocks making our database this week (and in recent past weeks), as well as the chart patterns observed in leading stocks, we continue to maintain our 100% cash position in the market. Like in the past, we will be able to increase our portfolio position from 0% to 100% invested within a matter of days or weeks. Although last week's market action as demonstrated by the averages was much more encouraging than prior weeks, this leadership doesn't seem to have translated into individual stock names. The market needs to show us the way, and right now, that direction is not clear to us.
- 2008-02-16: The US Stock Market continues to exhibit weakness, as last week's lackluster economic reports offered little encouragement. The week began strong but closed with disappointing weakness. The market's (DJIA, S&P and Nasdaq) 50-day moving averages are now in an established downtrends, while their 200-day have also turned down.
Also, one look at our Industry Map feature shows you how poor market breadth really is - now there are only 22 industries with 2 or more stocks that made recent 52-week highs. In bull markets, we usually see 100+ industry groups exhibiting this behavior. Our Auto Portfolio also refuses to spit out any strong names, and so we continue to maintain our 95% cash position. - 2008-02-04: Top Stock Picks candidate ShengdaTech Inc (SDTH) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2008-01-18: Our single portfolio holding Terra Nitrogen Co (TNH) is sitting right at it's 50-day moving average - need to see if this level will hold Friday. Being down on TNH more than our customary -7 to -8% is a reason for concern, although this morning's futures point to a higher initial open. Also Friday, President Bush is planning to unveil some details (sketchy) about his fiscal stimulus plan to boost our economy. With options expiration today, markets are going to be no less volatile than the rest of the week.
- 2008-01-18: We took advantage of the small bounce and sold out our only holding in TNH. The GSA Portfolio is now 100% in cash, awaiting future market opportunities.
- 2008-01-09: Today STP violated our trailing stop-loss line, and we traded out of it for a +58% gain. The sole position now held in the GSA Portfolio is TNH.
- 2008-01-07: Today we were stopped out of past Top Pick JASO for a gain of +44%, when our trailing stop-loss was triggered intra-day. We also exited our position in TRAD for a loss of -13%, sticking to our sell rules discipline. JASO announced a 3:1 stock split, which we know does nothing to a stock's underlying value.
We also have a stop order in place on our other solar play STP at it's trailing support level and judging by recent market action, it seems that it will be triggered tomorrow as well. The market right now is forcing us to exit positions - not heeding this advice would be counter-productive to our portfolio. - 2008-01-02: First of all, we wish all our subscribers a Very Happy New Year! Without your support, kind words and your much valued suggestions, our efforts would have no meaning.
Today, the market got off to it's worst start ever (in terms of Dow points), driven mainly by weak manufacturing data and an oil spike above $100/barrel. Let us see what Thursday has to offer. At some point, the market will wake up to it's undervalued state. Inspite of a big down day today, the GSA Portfolio actually closed up, helped, as usual, by JASO and STP - don't know how far or how long their run will last. We will need to stick by our trailing stop-losses on these plays to maximize our gains. IBD also had a positive note out on the energy sector late Wednesday. On the negative side, recent Top Stock Pick MTW closed lower and we are down -8.7% on this position. Our trading rules tell us to bail out of this one, and so we shall, barring any positive pre-market news announcements. We cannot stress the following point enough - you will almost always have more losers than winners over a given time period, but the key is to keep your losses small, and let your winners rides. Easier said than done, but hopefully the tools that we now have in place, make that task a bit more manageable. - 2007-12-31: Top Stock Picks candidate Terra Nitrogen Co LP (TNH) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-12-26: Top Stock Picks candidate Manitowoc Co Inc (MTW) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-12-24: Top Stock Picks candidate TradeStation Group Inc (TRAD) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-12-17: We reduced our exposure to the market today by selling half our position in JASO and STP for gains of +46% and +74% respectively. JASO reversed off a new 52-wk high, and looks like it will close in the red today, amidst general market weakness. We also closed out our position in MICC for a small loss of -3%. After today's action, the GSA Portfolio is roughly 10% invested, with 90% sitting in cash.
- 2007-12-09: Although the market averages are approaching new highs (S&P 500 less than 5% off its 52-week high), we have not observed robust participation by a broad group of stocks. Take a quick look at a daily chart of the S&P 500, and see how volume has contracted all through this recent 10-day rally. Further, our industry group analysis indicates a gradually shrinking count of groups with stocks that have made recent new highs. There are currently less than 50 groups with this characteristic. What happened to the other 50?
We were tempted to post TradeStation Group (TRAD) as a Top Pick, but TRAD doesn't yet show double-digit quarterly EPS numbers, so we stayed put. Maybe it will rally for a few points, but remember our miniumum goal is a +25% move. Right now, if we want to enter a trade, the stock should jump up at us, with absolutely no red flags. Our few holdings in solar plays continue to act well, and so we hold these, until our trading rules dictate otherwise. - 2007-11-27: We were stopped out of our positions in EZA, WFR and BIDZ for a loss of -7%, -10%, and -29% respectively. BIDZ gapped down this morning, based on the fallout from the negative write-up by a short seller. The real story around BIDZ has not unfolded completely, but in all cases when there is significant doubt about a holding, we let the market tell us what to do. We followed our trading rules, and exited our positions.
- 2007-11-26: The Nasdaq composite joined the other market averages to trade firmly below their 200-day moving averages. Sticking to our sell rules of exiting positions that are down -7% to -10%, we are going to trade out of EZA, WFR and BIDZ, barring any breaking positive developments before the market opens Tuesday. BIDZ was particularly hit hard after negative comments on a blog site, and showed a high volume reversal off a new 52-week high set earlier in the day today. Given the market environment, we also plan to lock in partial profits in our winners STP and JASO by selling half our position. STP is up nearly +50% for us, while JASO is up +14%.
- 2007-11-23: Market has bounced back well on this shortened, post-Thanksgiving trading day, and volume will remain relatively light today. Our market direction indicators continue to remain in the bearish camp. All three market indicator proxies (DIA, SPY and ONEQ) have shown worsening accumulation/distribution ranks, and are trading below their respective 200-day moving averages.
We continue to be defensive in our GSA Portfolio, making selective purchases only if an outstanding stock chart/name jumps out in our screens. Also, the one to watch more closely next week is MEMEC Electronic Materials (WFR), since we are down -7% in this position. WFR seems to have found support at it's 50-day moving average, which is encouraging for now. Overall, the GSA Portfolio is up +2.5% today with approximately 2 trading hours remaining. Remember this old wall street saying - bull markets have no resistance, and bear markets have no support. It explains, in general terms, why sometimes support levels hold and other times they don't. - 2007-11-19: Top Stock Picks candidate Bidz.com Inc (BIDZ) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-11-15: We traded out of our losing positions in AOB, NE, and SSRX for a loss of -8%, -11% and -23%. All good stocks, stopped out as a result of poor market action.
- 2007-11-13: Pre-market is looking extremely strong today. We are going to wait and see if the GSA Portfolio recovers a bit, before trading out of some of our losers.
- 2007-11-12: Gosh, it's been a depressing last few days in the market. Haven't seen a market drop so fast in a long time. Usually, these fast down moves portend of things to come, if there is no bounce attempt of support areas. The GSA Portfolio took it on the chin Friday, down -6% and again today, down -5%, giving back all the prior month's gains and then some. So, we are going to stick to our rules and trade out of our losing positions - MICC, NE, AOB, SSRX , anything that is down -7 to -8% or more, will all be sold at the market Tuesday, barring any SIGNIFICANT company-specific positive news announcements.
- 2007-11-09: Market may have found support at it's 200-day moving average after several recent volatile days, although the futures this Friday morning point to further weakness. The GSA Portfolio also experienced +2% up and down moves for 3 days in a row, but strength in solar stocks has really helped our core solar holdings (STP, JASO), both up +45% or more. We also need to watch SSRX (-13%), to see if we should exit this one.
- 2007-11-07: Top Stock Picks candidate Noble Corp (NE) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-11-01: Top Stock Picks candidate Silicon Motion Technology Corp (SIMO) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-10-29: Top Stock Picks candidate MEMC Electronic Materials Inc (WFR) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio. Top Stock Picks candidate Millicom International Cellular (MICC) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-10-29: We're going to scale into our position in WFR tomorrow, following the signals generated by our Top Picks Portfolio Model. Overall, the market is telling us to be aggressively positioned - hopefully we should continue to see a favorable interest rate stance by the Fed on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Past Top Stock Pick from a week ago, Suntech Power Holdings (STP) has way exceeded our expectations, being up +38% from our purchase price. Let's see if we have the fortitude to hold this one through for a longer-term play. - 2007-10-23: Tuesday morning, we are going to pyramid into our position in Monday's Top Stock Pick Suntech Power Holdings (STP), since we are up +4% in STP.
- 2007-10-22: Top Stock Picks candidate Suntech Power Holdings Co Ltd (STP) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-10-11: We pyramided today into recent Top Stock Pick JASO on a brokerage upgrade and a move up on very strong volume.
- 2007-10-10: On Wednesday, barring any negative news, we will pyramid into recent Top Stock Picks AOB and SSRX, both being up +3% from our purchase point. Channel your portfolio into those stocks that have moved in the right direction for you. We normally double our position, if a stock has moved up +3% to +6% from our original buy point.
- 2007-10-08: Top Stock Picks candidate 3SBio Inc (SSRX) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio. Top Stock Picks candidate American Oriental Bioengineering Inc (AOB) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio. Top Stock Picks candidate IShares MSCI South Africa (EZA) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-09-29: The wildly neutral market continues it's action this week as well. Once again, we see a contraction in the number of stocks to chose from. We observed a few more breakouts this past week, but most of the price structures looked loose and wide (e.g., HOLX, HURC, ANST). We're not willing to commit additional funds to any names based on our observances at this point. It will be interesting to see if the market averages can break through their old summer highs or if double-top patterns will instead take place. Although it could be frustrating for new investors (and for some of our newer subscribers), it is prudent to sit tight right now.
- 2007-09-24: Top Stock Picks candidate JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd (JASO) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-09-17: The market has already priced in a cut in the Fed Funds rate on September 18. The only issue remaining is how much the fed will cut this week - 25 or 50 basis points. Futures this Monday morning point to a weaker opening.
On the GSA Portfolio front, nothing has changed - we still remain 100% in cash. We observed another contraction this week in the number of stocks making our database. Also, take a look at our Industry Map - in a broad, healthy market, we normally observe at least 100 industry names that have 2 or more stocks approaching new highs. This week only 35-odd industries meet this criteria, indicating bad market breadth. We continue to sit tight. - 2007-09-09: As over the last few weeks, we continue to maintain zero exposure to equities at this point. Last week, both the S&P 500 and the Dow failed to reclaim support of their 50-day moving averages. Using ETF proxies for the market, the current accumulation/distribution rankings of SPY and DIA are at 0.99 and 1.22 respectively. A reading below 1 indicates distribution. Also, less and less stocks are making our database every week, so that too indicates a smaller participation by leading stocks. Our market indicators have been stuck firmly in the bearish-neutral state.
On Friday, we had the first monthly loss in payrolls growth in almost four years. The week after next, the Fed meets on September 18 to announce whether a rate cut in the Fed Funds rate is warranted - the market is expecting some sort of cut from the current 5.25% level. Next week is marked by a few market moving events - the sixth anniversary of the September 11 attacks, initial jobless claims, retail sales, and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence numbers. Expect more volatility, and so we continue to watch from the sidelines for now. - 2007-09-03: We continue to remain on the sidelines in this market, until we see a greater participation from individual names and more breakouts to chose from. Tried hard this weekend to find some names worth buying into, but didn't find much. Some of our past winners looked interesting like RIMM, DRYS and LIFC, but there isn't any point chasing extended stocks. In a healthy market, stocks should be flashing buy signals all around - let the market come to you.
Technically, both the Dow and the S&P 500 are trading between their declining 50-day and still rising 200-day moving average. It will be interesting to watch which psychological area gets violated again. Historically, we are also in the month most disliked by the market. Since 1951, the Dow has risen in September only 36% of the time, with an average monthly return for September of -1.06%. Maybe it's prudent to continue to enjoy the summer trade-free for a few more weeks. - 2007-08-25: We continue to maintain a 100% cash position in the GSA Portfolio, since no stock names seem to jump out of our database for purchase. Although valuations on the overall market seem appealing, from a technical perspective we need to see if the major stock indexes can reclaim the support of their 50-day averages. More importantly, we need to see upside participation from individual growth stocks, but we are observing very few breakouts this week. The credit problem in the market probably won't correct itself instantly, although it was encouraging to see July new home sales reverse their prior two months of decline.
On another note, we've added a new feature to the site - we now show thumbnail trend charts of key indicators like accumulation/distribution, relative strength, GSA rank, quarterly EPS%, etc., to quickly see a 3-month snapshot of these indicators in one place. Hopefully you will find it useful. - 2007-08-17: We sold our position in Top Stock Pick DryShips (DRYS) Thursday for a gain of +21%. The market rallied a bit into the close yesterday, but it needs to be seen if a bottom has been formed or the worst is yet to come. We are now sitting on a 100% cash position.
- 2007-08-15: Today we were stopped out of Top Stock Picks Research in Motion (RIMM) for a gain of +29%, and Google (GOOG) for a loss of -3.5%. The only remaining position in the GSA Portfolio is DryShips (DRYS), currently up +24.5% from our purchase point. We may as well go ahead and sell DRYS at the market tomorrow, given the state of this market.
- 2007-08-06: Today we were stopped out of Apple Inc (AAPL) for a +30% gain, and Guess? Inc (GES) for a +8% gain. We continue to remain cautious inspite of today's 286 point rally in the Dow, since leading stocks still need to prove themselves - and that didn't happen today.
- 2007-08-05: We continue to take a very cautious view in this market and have placed hard stops on most positions in the GSA Portfolio. In addition to the stops placed last week on GOOG and RIMM, we have new stops in place on AAPL (just below it's 10-wk average at $129.95) and GES (just below last weeks low at $45.95). The stops if triggered should protect profits of +30% on AAPL and +8% on GES.
- 2007-08-01: Market continues to act very weak, with the S&P 500 close to testing support at it's 200-day moving average around 1450. The market gave back positive gains from early in the day to close at it's lows, again not a healthy sign.
Looking at our portfolio holdings, we have placed stop-sell orders on stocks that are close to violating their trailing stops - RIMM and GOOG are two names that exhibit this situation. On RIMM, a stop around $199 would protect profits of +30%, and on GOOG, a stop around $499 would limit our losses to -4%. It does not matter how high profile the name of the stock you are holding - we need to show trading rules discipline at all times, specially when our market indicators go bearish. Keep the faith! - 2007-08-01: We were stopped out of NCTY for a loss of -12%.
- 2007-07-27: We were stopped out of Top Pick HAYN today for a loss of -12%.
- 2007-07-27: We exited our position in Top Pick LifeCell (LIFC) for a +20% gain. LIFC had a reversal off a new high two trading sessions ago, and continued to act a bit weak in this poor market environment, and so we nailed down meaningful profits.
Market seems to look vulnerable here again down triple digits, even in the face of excellent GDP numbers released today - not a very reassuring sign. We will continue to follow our trading rules and sell positions that show losses of -7% to -10%. - 2007-07-25: Top Stock Pick SIMO was sold from the GSA Portfolio for a loss of -7%. After the bell Wednesday, Apple (AAPL) announced quarterly results ($0.92) significantly above expectations ($0.72), and was up big after-hours. We should see a strong move in AAPL in Thursday's trading. We also need to watch HAYN carefully, since we are down almost -7% in this position.
- 2007-07-24: Top Stock Pick Google (GOOG) seems to have found support at it's 50-day moving average line. We need to observe closely if this level holds.
Also, Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO) is trading below it's GSA trailing stop-loss line. We will be placing stops just below SIMO's 50-day moving average of $24 to keep our losses small. DryShips (DRYS) has been on a tear, but we are going to continue to ride this one, unless we see a reversal occur - DRYS is a bit extended in price.
- 2007-07-21: Top Stock Pick NVE Corporation (NVEC) was sold from the GSA Portfolio for a loss of -14% on across the board market weakness. One exception in the portfolio was Apple (AAPL) which closed up +3.75. We will continue to use our trading rules to make portfolio decisions in the coming week - expect more market volatility, hopefully this time to the upside.
- 2007-07-19: Following our trading rules, we will be a seller of NVEC at the market Friday. NVEC broke support (both 10-wk and our trailing stop-loss line), inspite of reporting a +78% increase in quaterly EPS. We are down -13.9% in NVEC.
After hours, Google (GOOG) was down more than -7% and so it deserves close watching as well.
- 2007-07-16: Top Stock Picks candidate Haynes International Inc (HAYN) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio. Top Stock Picks candidate The9 Limited (NCTY) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-07-14: We will be initiating a position in this week's Top Stock Pick Haynes International Inc (HAYN) Monday morning. HAYN has shown good basing action for several weeks and also broke out of this consolidation period on active volume.
Also, following the signals generated by our Top Picks Portfolio, we will repurchase a position in past pick The9 Ltd (NCTY). Our repurchase rules allow us to re-initiate a position in recently closed longer-term plays which have again made new highs on robust trade. With the markets all around the world in a buoyant mood, it seems prudent to increase our exposure to quality growth stocks, while following our strict buy/sell rules.
- 2007-07-07: Don't see lots of new opportunities in this week's market, except that we will pyramid into our position in Top Stock Pick NVE Corp (NVEC), following our established buy rules. NVEC is up +3% from where we purchased last week, and is showing good follow-thru action from it's cup-and-handle breakout.
Also, on Friday, we sold our position in NCTY for a +23% gain.
- 2007-07-05: All but one stock in the GSA Portfolio finished in the green today, despite a ho-hum market day marked by light post-holiday trade. We've seen some big moves in the portfolio that began with RIMM's announcement last Friday. We also see that The9 Ltd (NCTY) has made repeated new highs on lower than average volume, and so we are going to exit our position in NCTY for a +23% gain tomorrow - barring, as usual, any positive breaking news before the market opens. This has been our second profitable trade in NCTY this year.
Also, we have spent the last few weeks analyzing the historical performance of our Top Picks going back to April 2004, and applying our buy/sell trading rules to a portfolio built out of these picks. The results, although not stellar (given the market performance since then), seem to be pretty encouraging as shown on our home page. One of the characteristics of the model was to sell quickly (at a -7% loss), with the intention of buying back again on new highs. Also, note that there are more losing trades than winning trades, but the concept of pyramiding into winners and letting them ride longer kept the portfolio out of trouble. Please feel free to let us know your thoughts or questions.
- 2007-07-03: Top Stock Picks candidate NVE Corporation (NVEC) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-07-02: Top Stock Picks candidate DryShips Inc (DRYS) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-06-28: Watch out for some positive price action Friday on current Top Stock Picks holding Research in Motion (RIMM), which beat analysts' earnings expecatations, provided strong sales guidance and set a 3-for-1 stock split. RIMM was up as much as +16% in after-hours trading Thursday - don't know if the regular session will beat that amount. We'll watch and hopefully enjoy the session Friday.
- 2007-06-25: Top Stock Picks candidate Silicon Motion Technology Corp (ADR) (SIMO) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-06-20: We traded out of our position in Atwood Oceanics (ATW) for a +15% gain. ATW reversed off its high today, as well as made recent new highs on lower than average volume over the past few weeks.
We still maintain our cautious, under-invested position in the market. - 2007-06-12: Current Top Stock Pick holding TTES was sold from the GSA Portfolio at a profit of +6.7%.
- 2007-06-11: Weak technical action observed on past Top Stock Pick T-3 Energy Services (TTES) - a break to a new 52-week high on anemic volume. Also, notice how volume has shrunk all through it's recent advance - not exactly what you want to see. We will follow our sell rules and exit our position in TTES Tuesday (barring any positive morning breaking news), with an approximately +7% profit. With this market offering up very few fresh breakouts, we simply need a reason to sell. Remember, of course that one can always buy back your stocks, if they redeem themselves in the future.
- 2007-06-06: Top Stock Picks candidate Google Inc (GOOG) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-06-04: With the overnight selloff in Chinese stocks last night (Shanghai down -8.3%) it seemed that Wall Street would have a similar hiccup to what happened earlier in the year. However, the market showed good resilience with the three major averages closing in the green for the day.
The GSA Portfolio also had a really strong day today (up +1.33% in spite of being only 50% invested), with every holding closing up. GES in fact gapped up right from the opening bell on positive brokerage comments. We continue to see an absence of any other quality stocks breaking out of correct chart patterns, and so we continue to maintain our cautious, under-exposed position in this market. As always, the only time to buy is when the right stocks come to you. Right now, there's not much knocking at our door. - 2007-05-31: We pyramided into our current Top Stock Pick holding Guess? Inc (GES) today. GES is showing a follow-thru breakout to new high on strong volume this morning. We were up +5.6% on our initial GES position - our rules for pyramiding are to add more shares if the price rises anywhere between +3% and +6% from our initial purchase price.
- 2007-05-29: Two aspects seem worrying in today's market:
1. Lack of significant leadership in our breakouts list. There is simply not much to risk new money into. 2. Take a look at the daily chart of Diamonds Trust (DIA) in our database which serves as an effective proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Notice the high volume reversal off a new high last Thrusday, which indicates a pretty strong distribution day. We are therefore going to follow our loss-limiting rules and cut exposure to any stocks not acting right, e.g., Titanium Metals (TIE), which is showing declining relative strength, and is failing to stay above support levels. We will exit TIE at the market tomorrow.
- 2007-05-24: We exited our positions in GIGM and GLBL for gains of +26% and +39% respectively. GIGM seems unable to find support at it's 50-day moving average, and GLBL has made a few repeated new highs on low volume.
- 2007-05-22: We pyramided into our current Top Stock Picks holding Research In Motion (RIMM) today. RIMM broke out again into new high ground on good volume, and we purchased more RIMM at approximately 3.5% above our original purchase price.
- 2007-05-21: Good strong day for the GSA Portfolio, which increased 1.34% vs 0.8% for the Nasdaq. All 10 Top Stock Pick holdings closed in the green today. The market continues to be buoyed by takeover activity, which for a change affected one of our holdings. Electronic Arts (EA) announced that it was taking a 15% stake in current Top Stock Picks holding The9 Ltd (NCTY) which rose 4 points during the day. Company held a conference call late into the evening, so we'll keep a close eye on how NCTY trades tomorrow.
TTES made a new high on lower than average volume, so it may consolidate here a bit, unless volume increases to the upside - also warrants a closer look over the next few trading sessions. GLBL and GIGM continue their upward movement on strong confirming volume. Both have been great performers for the GSA Portfolio to-date. Still not finding anything else to commit new money into. Need to continue to maintain our cautious position, with a fair degree of patience.
- 2007-05-16: Top Stock Pick holding BSD Medical Corporation (BSM) tripped up its stop-loss and was sold from the GSA Portfolio for a -24% loss. Although the market averages closed strongly (Dow up +0.8%), and the GSA Portfolio rose as well (+0.6%), upside volume on our holdings was somewhat anemic. With no stocks matching our standard search criteria, we continue to be cautious with our growth stock holdings.
- 2007-05-15: Current Top Stock Picks holding Omrix Biopharmaceuticals (OMRI) announced positive news this morning on FDA approval of a product - we will see how it trades on this news today before deciding on an exit.
- 2007-05-15: We were stopped out of Top Stock Pick holdings OMRI and HWCC today for a -9% loss each. OMRI could not close up despite positive developments, a classic sign of a market not behaving well. Keep in mind May and June round out the bottom four months of the market on a historical basis (since 1951), with August and September being the worst performing months.
Need to continue to be watchful and take profits or limit losses using our sell rules - new highs on low volume, high volume reversals, breakdowns below support. earnings miises, etc.
- 2007-05-14: We will exit our position in Omrix Biopharmaceuticals (OMRI) tomorrow, barring any positive morning company specific news announcement. OMRI is showing weaking technicals, including a failure to hold above support levels. We are currently down about -8% in OMRI. Early in January 2007, we had closed out a +35% gain in OMRI, so we guess we have to give some of it back this second time around.
GLBL and TTES acting well, making new highs on good volume, on a lackluster market day, with investors awaiting Tuesday's CPI inflation numbers.
- 2007-05-13: We are going to pyramid into Past Top Stock Pick Titanium Metals Corporation (TIE) Monday morning. TIE broke out of a cup and handle pattern on Friday (as observed on a weekly chart) on more than 2X average volume. We are already up +8% in TIE, but with nothing new catching our fancy this weekend, it may be prudent to concentrate our cash into plays that are moving in the correct direction.
- 2007-05-11: Past Top Stock Pick ZUMZ tripped up our trailing support resistance stop loss, and we exited our position in ZUMZ for a -9% loss.
Yesterday's sell-off in the market also hit the GSA Portfolio for a -1.6% loss. This mornings S&P500 and Nasdaq futures however both indicate a higher opening for the market Friday. We will be watching our position in OMRI closely to see if it recovers or continues to trade below it's support levels.
- 2007-05-10: Top Stock Picks candidate Research in Motion Ltd (RIMM) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio. Top Stock Picks candidate Guess? Inc (GES) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-05-09: We were stopped out of past Top Pick PRXI for a +39% gain, and out of ROCM for a -10% loss.
- 2007-05-07: Top Stock Picks candidate T-3 Energy Services Inc (TTES) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-05-07: We have protective stops in place on the worst performing stocks in our portfolio - BSM, TIE, HWCC and ROCM. PRXI's chart has also given us great hooks on which to hang our profit-protecting stops, which if triggered would net us a +40% return.
After a stellar April, will the old Wall Street adage hold true - "Sell in May and go away"? All we need to do is observe the action of leading stocks for the answer to this question, and more importantly to follow our trading rules diligently.
- 2007-05-07: We pyramided into our existing position in prior Top Stock pick Apple Inc (AAPL). AAPL has moved up nearly +4% from our initial purchase, and warrants a slightly higher concentration in the GSA portfolio.
- 2007-05-04: We exited our position in past Top Pick Silicom Ltd (SILC) at a +46% profit. SILC announced a private placement of additional shares and also reversed hard off a new high last week. We can always revisit this strong performer when (if) it retests new highs.
- 2007-04-30: Top Stock Picks candidate Apple Inc (AAPL) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-04-30: We exited our position in WEL, for a -23% loss. WEL has shown a breakdown in relative strength below 80, failed to reclaim its 50-day moving average line, and has poor other technical indicators including accumulation/distribution. We've never had much luck with lower-priced issues.
- 2007-04-26: Several strong moves in our holdings yesterday in sympathy with the broader averages. ROCM, GLBL and ATW all rose to new highs on brisk trade. Most recent Top Pick LIFC also gapped up on big volume, beating earnings estimates by $0.02.
SILC reversed hard off it's new high, after reporting a 100% increase in Q1 EPS. No analysts cover this stock yet. Maybe SILC will correct a bit here, but since we have a "Longer Term Play" marked against it, we are tempted to hold on a bit, given the relatively strong market backdrop. Let's see how SILC reacts over the next few trading days. The two positions we are down on most is WEL and BSM. BSM is the manufacturer and service provider for innovative cancer treatment systems utilizing hyperthermia, and just announced a summit meeting in Germany for Apr 26-27 to share results. Expect big moves, one way or the other. - 2007-04-25: Just a quick update - past Top Stock Pick Silicom, Ltd (SILC) is scheduled to announce Q1 earnings before the bell Wednesday. Except some volatility - SILC has been a powerful stock for our portfolio, up +65% in under 3 months. Key will be how it reacts to earnings today.
Not finding much else to buy recently. - 2007-04-19: Tomorrow, we will close out our position in past Top Stock Pick SunPower Corporation (SPWR). SPWR has hit it's profit objective of +25% after 13 weeks of holding, and also reversed off a new high on strong volume, giving us a reason to lock-in profits.
- 2007-04-16: Top Stock Picks candidate LifeCell Corporation (LIFC) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-04-16: Good strong day for the overall market, with the Nasdaq and S&P500 notching +1% gains for the day, on renewed investor optimism about the economy. Earnings season is upon us and so we should expect some volatility going forward.
Notable stocks in the GSA Portfolio making new highs on strong volume were PRXI, ROCM, SPWR, and GLBL. BSM is sitting at its 10-week moving average, so we will observe how that support level will behave. The one negative for the day was our exit in MIND for a -14.5% loss. Keeping losses moderate is the key, as they will always exist. Also, we never commit more than 5% of the portfolio into any single holding, unless we have pyramided into the position, as so we minimize the negative performance implications resulting from a losing trade. Remember, losing is part of the game. It's how much you lose that matters.
- 2007-04-15: We will be exiting our position in Mitcham Industries (MIND) at a -12% loss on Monday. MIND had an earnings miss last week and we need to follow our rules to cut our losses short.
We will also initiate a new position in LifeCell Corporation (LIFC), Monday's Top Stock Pick. Overall, we have seen some real good moves in the GSA Portfolio recently. At this point, the key will be to exit these positions correctly.
- 2007-04-09: Top Stock Picks candidate Mitcham Industries Inc (MIND) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-04-09: We took a very small position in Past Top Stock Picks candidate The9 Limited (NCTY) on takeover speculation by Electronic Arts.
- 2007-04-04: Past Top Stock Picks candidate Allegheny Technologies Inc (ATI) hit it's upside target after 18 weeks of holding, and was sold from the GSA Portfolio at a profit of +26%. ATI also made new 52-week highs on below average volume two days in a row, giving us a reason to lock in gains. New highs on low volume often indicate less demand for a stock at these levels.
- 2007-04-02: Top Stock Picks candidate Houston Wire & Cable Company (HWCC) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio. Top Stock Picks candidate Boots & Coots Intl Well Inc (WEL) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-03-30: Top Stock Picks candidate Atwood Oceanics Inc (ATW) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-03-26: Top Stock Picks candidate Titanium Metals Corp (TIE) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-03-25: We will be raising our protective stop-loss to just under $11.00 on past Top Stock Picks candidate PRXI. PRXI broke into new high ground last week, and has also set itself up for a longer-term play. A stop-loss just under $11.00 will net us a +25% profit on PRXI if triggered. The hope is that it will continue to run.
- 2007-03-22: Today we purchased our Top Stock Pick Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ) - apparently after talking to a few subscribers today, it seems like some did not receive our Top Picks e-mail sent out last night. Although this doesn't happen often, we are at the mercy of the limitations of technology, and at times these technologies do fail.
In any case, another strong day for the GSA Portfolio (+1.6%) vs. a lackluster market session. Wondering how long this profitable streak will last? We will also be watching the action on PRXI closely as it approaches its highs, since we are up +25% on PRXI in approximately 10 weeks.
- 2007-03-21: We will exit our position in past Top Stock Picks candidate NCTY on it's inability to hold up technically (downside gap, low internal momemtum, failure to reclaim it's 50-day moving average, and an accumulation distribution rank below 1.0).
- 2007-03-21: We sold out of past Top Stock Picks candidate NCTY for a +9% profit. Earlier in the month we were sitting on a nice +20% move in NCTY, but were caught up in that nasty China correction and NCTY being a player based in China, corrected in sympathy. A failure to recover technically is reason enough to sell.
Overall, another good portfolio day again, although the averages (+1.98% for the Nasdaq) beat out the GSA Portfolio (+1.22%). Notable holdings acting well, were GIGM and SILC, both up on robust volume. GIGM has turned out to be the kind of play that is up nearly +25% in exactly 8 weeks, so we will have to scratch our heads to see what should be done - hold or fold. Our gut wants to hold out and be a little more piggish. We're also going to put some fresh money (5% of the portfolio) into tomorrow's Top Stock Pick Zumiez Inc (ZUMZ). ZUMZ has a good looking breakout on high volume, is in a Top 20 ranked industry group, gapped up last week, although valuation may be a bit steep. But this market is telling us it wants to be bought, and so we'll buy some quality names.
- 2007-03-19: Good strong day for the market (+1%) as well as for the GSA Portfolio (+2%). Several Top Stock Picks holdings moved up well - ATI is up +19% from it's purchase point, and is close to hitting it's price target. GIGM also moved up on 1.5 times average volume. Top Pick from last week ROCM has moved up +14% to a new 52-week high on 4 times average volume and is setting itself up for a longer-term play. Notice how ROCM's support/resistance based trailing stop-loss line moved up to just beneath it's previous high. If ROCM continues to act well, it should have no trouble holding above this line.
Didn't find much else to put new money into, so we just need to continue to be patient here, and enjoy these portfolio moves. - 2007-03-13: Top Stock Pick Rochester Medical (ROCM) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today. ROCM finished up on strong volume, on a really down market day. We also pyramided into GLBL, as a follow-up to yesterday's purchase.
Portfolio holding GigaMedia (GIGM) blew away their earnings estimate, but finished lower for the day. The one bit of encouraging news was that most stocks in the portfolio fell on below-average volume. All we need now is for the market to cooperate a bit here. - 2007-03-12: Top Stock Picks candidate Global Industries (GLBL) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today. GLBL finished up $0.47 on brisk trade - always a good sign when your purchase shows a profit right from day one. Approximately 5% of the GSA Portfolio was invested into GLBL. Let's wait and see if there is an opportunity to pyramid into it some more.
Current holding Omrix Biopharmaceuticals (OMRI) also followed through on it's breakout from last Friday, and is behaving well in this market. The only red flag we see on OMRI is it's valuation - will have to keep an eye on that. Overall, we're seeing some pleasant days recently for the portfolio following that nasty correction a week or so ago. - 2007-03-07: We plan on using the weak bounce in the market to lighten up on under-performing names in the GSA Portfolio, specially China plays like NCTY and FMCN. Stocks showing poor accumulation / distribution or stocks unable to reclaim their 50-day moving averages will be sold out.
- 2007-03-07: Top Stock Pick FMCN was sold from the portfolio at a profit of +7%.
- 2007-02-27: Today was an ugly market day, in case you hadn't noticed. We really don't want to pretend to understand what went on in the market today - there's plenty of opinions all around on this topic (China, Cheney, NYSE trading system glitch, talk of a recession, etc). In any case, we didn't execute a single trade today, just found the market very difficult to watch, so for the most part, we didn't.
Also keep in perspective that the market always moves to extremes, and that may be what is happening right now. Don't know for sure what tomorrow will bring, although the pundits expect a bit more downside. Using our measures, this market is NOT overvalued by any measure. Let's see what the next day brings. - 2007-02-26: Top Stock Picks candidate BSD Medical Corp (BSM) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today.
After the bell, Focus Media (FMCN) announced Q4 EPS that beat estimates by a penny. Although down $0.70 for the day, FMCN rose $3.20 in after-hours trading. Keep a close eye on how it trades Tuesday. NCTY has also hit it's price target and is looking strong - let's see how it behaves as it approaches it's 52-week high. - 2007-02-20: Top Stock Picks holding Iconix Brand Group (ICON) was sold from the GSA Portfolio at a profit of +27%, after 19 weeks of holding. It is preferable to sell winning stocks (barring exceptional high-flyers) on the way up, once profit targets have been met.
Also, note the strong price-volume action of Top Stock Pick GIGM, which made a new 52-week high on 288% average daily volume. GIGM is acting right in this market at this stage of it's move. - 2007-02-18: Top Stock Picks holding PRXI has shot up +26% in 5 weeks, and is setting itself up for a longer term play. ICON is also close to hitting it's +25% profit target after 18 weeks of holding - we will exit our position in ICON this week, barring any positive news announcements. We were also stopped out of our position in ALNY for a mere 1% gain.
Market indicators all look very positive, but surprisingly we couldn't find anything compelling to pull the trigger on. We will continue to look some more today. Note: Securities markets are closed on Monday, due to the Presidents Day holiday. - 2007-02-14: We were stopped out of LNUX and ININ for a loss of -12% and -13% respectively.
- 2007-02-05: Top Stock Picks candidate Silicon Ltd (SILC) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today.
- 2007-02-01: We were stopped out of Under Armour Inc (UA) for a loss of -3%. UA reported an EPS of $0.24 for 2006 Q4 vs $0.08 in 2005 Q5, but missed analysts' expectations of $0.25. Stock gapped through it's 50-day MA, and triggered our stop.
We also doubled up on our position in GigaMedia Ltd (GIGM) to roughly 10% of the GSA Portfolio.
- 2007-01-29: We re-entered a position in past winner Omrix Biopharmaceuticals Inc (OMRI) today - it's tight chart pattern has been a positive sign, plus our feel is that we sold too soon last time around.
Not a bad day for the rest of the GSA Portfolio today, with several holdings (NCTY, FMCN, ATI, SPWR) all hitting new 52-wk highs on good volume. Only two stocks (GIGM, LNUX) declined. Notice how important it is for a stock to break into uncharted territory on strong volume - it provides a "hold" signal on existing positions. The reverse is also often true - news highs on anemic volume are a warning sign that there is no demand for the stock at these levels. It is always about supply and demand. Let's see how January closes out, since "As January Goes, So Goes The Year". - 2007-01-27: Monday we will re-enter a position in past Top Stock Picks candidate Omrix Biophamaceuticals Inc (OMRI). OMRI has bounced off it's 10-wk moving average and the GSA support/resistance line. Other positive things going for OMRI are it's strong group action (Biotechnology-1), accumulation/distribution rating (2.03), trading at a discount in valuation (-17%), low institutional ownership (10%), and a whopping ROE (86%). Current entry price also allows for stops just below support/resistance levels.
- 2007-01-25: Top Stock Pick GigaMedia Ltd (GIGM) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today. After having a great Wednesday (+1.70%), the portfolio gave back a good portion of it's gains today (-1.22%). All the market averages closed lower today, the worst hit being the Nasdaq, giving up -1.30%.
We will be quick to pull the trigger on any stocks not acting right, or exceeding our stop-loss rules, e.g., LNUX (-11.5%). - 2007-01-22: OMRI tripped it's trailing stop-loss line, and was sold out from the GSA Portfolio at a profit of +35%.
- 2007-01-20: We pyramided a bit into PRXI Friday to follow-up on our purchase from earlier in the week. Also, our position in Omrix Pharmaceuticals Inc (OMRI) has returned +36% in a little over 2 months. OMRI broke out into new high ground this week and then seems to have fallen back into it's 7-week base. We will protect our profits in OMRI by placing a stop order at $32.92 as dictated by our trailing support/resistance based stop line.
Don't see much else to buy next week, and so we continue to maintain our under-exposed portfolio position in this market. - 2007-01-18: Our stops on RealNetworks Inc (RNWK) were triggered today at a -7% loss. Overall the GSA Portfolio dropped -0.6% vs. -1.46% for the NASDAQ, with most of the portfolio holdings down on below average volume. However, we continue to maintain tight stops on all existing positions, given the length of this bull market (4+ years), and our market indicators.
On the brighter side, past Top Pick from two days ago Premier Exhibitions Inc (PRXI) showed good strength, moving up +0.56 on brisk trade. We are going to pyramid a bit into PRXI tomorrow, to increase it's position in the portfolio. Remember, tight stops on all positions. - 2007-01-17: Top Stock Picks PRXI, SPWR, and LNUX were purchased for the GSA Portfolio on Tuesday.
- 2007-01-07: We have stops in place 3% below their respective 50-day moving averages on the following GSA Portfolio holdings: ALNY, ATI, ICON and UA (e.g., if the moving average is at 10, our stop would be placed at 97% of 10, or 9.70). On RNWK we have a stop at $10.5, just below last week's support level.
This market is simply not serving up anything worthwhile and so we are simply implementing our defensive strategy.
- 2007-01-04: We were stopped out of Dril-Quip Inc (DRQ) for a loss of -14%, on further weakness in the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services group.
Not convinced about the strength of this market anymore - our market indicator remains stuck in the bearish-neutral camp. This is being further borne out by the action of our individual portfolio holdings. Lack of fresh quality breakouts leads us to continue to maintain a defensive position in this market.
- 2006-12-28: Top Stock Pick Ansoft Corporation (ANST) was sold from the GSA Portfolio at +21% after 17 weeks of holding. ANST has made repeated new highs on below average volume, and was also close to our profit target.
- 2006-12-21: Past Top Stock Pick International Securities Exchange Holdings (ISE) was sold from the GSA Portfolio on a violation of it´s support / resistance based GSA Stop-Loss line at a negligible profit of +0.5%..
- 2006-12-20: Top Stock Pick CROX was sold from the GSA Portfolio for a gain of +31%, while MIKR was sold at a loss of -15%. CROX should have bounced off its 50-day moving average by now, and we suspect this support line will be violated (the 10-week average has already been broken). MIKR was sold following a negative revenue projection by the company.
Market averages at all time highs, yet 12 out of the last 15 trading sessions, have our market indicators at a bearish signal. We continue to maintain our defensive stance, until individual stocks prove themselves. - 2006-12-19: GOOG, AXR, SIMO and TWGP were sold from the GSA Portfolio.
- 2006-12-16: Portfolio actions that are in place for next week:
AXR - Stop loss set at $119 to net us a +70% gain if triggered. CROX - Stop loss set at $39.97, 3% below its 50-day moving average to net us a +24% gain. GOOG - Stop loss set at $470, just shy of its 50-day moving average, to net us a +9% gain. TWGP and SIMO - Will exit at the market Monday, on their accumulation/distribution ranks falling below 1.0, as well as failing to reclaim their 50-day moving averages. No new set-ups in the market look appealing this week. So, we'll just continue to be patient, and maybe even a bit defensive. - 2006-12-15: Past Top Stock Picks Fuel-Tech Inc (FTEK) and Guess Inc (GES) were sold from the GSA Portfolio at a profit of +29% and +27% respectively. FTEK was sold on a reversal off new highs yesterday, while GES hit it's profit target after 19 weeks of holding. Also getting a bit anxious about AXR at +80%. We may set up some trailing stops for next week, if AXR goes any higher. Our traling stops strategy kicks in on stocks trading very high above their 200-day moving averages.
Although, we're in a bit of a profit-taking mood today, we are still sticking to our stock trading rules of when to sell. Like everything else in life, you must have a plan. Without a plan, you may as well not even try to invest in the stock market. - 2006-12-14: Top Stock Picks candidate Interactive Intelligence Inc (ININ) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio this morning.
- 2006-12-14: It would only be prudent to take some money off the table at this point in the market, given the recent portfolio gains. So, we look to see if any of our holdings triggered sell signals we follow. One that did today, was Fuel-Tech Inc (FTEK) which reversed off a new high on heavy volume. No telling if FTEK will simply consolidate here for another base building period or decline in price, or even continue it's push upwards. But, at a +29% gain, it gives us a reason to book profits.
Another chart pattern that is worth watching is Allegheny Technologies (ATI) which shows the negative "railroad tracks" pattern on it's weekly chart - a move to new high last week, and then a reversal of the entire move this week. If the pattern doesn't look like it will change Friday, we will probably bail out of ATI. Still maintaining our piggish position on AMREP Corp (AXR) at an almost +70% gain, until we see something that we don't like. Who would think that a company engaged in residential construction would perform in this manner. However, ours is not to reason why, but to simply act upon what we see. - 2006-12-12: We were stopped out of Metretek Technologies (MEK) today for a loss of -19%.
- 2006-11-30: Today will be swapping out our position in TradStation Group (TRAD) with our Top Picks in Dril-Quip Inc (DRQ) and Allegheny Technologies Inc (ATI). It sometimes pays to trade out of positions that haven't moved much in 7-8 weeks, and into newer names that may have the potential of faster appreciation. One downside, is that this action will increase our margin position a bit, so we will also look to getting back into a no-margin situation soon.
- 2006-11-30: Top Stock Picks Allegheny Technologies Inc (ATI) and Dril-Quip Inc (DRQ) were purchased for the GSA Portfolio today.
TradStation (TRAD) was sold out for a loss of -9.4%. - 2006-11-27: Top Stock Pick Focus Media Holding Ltd (FMCN) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
All, but three, stocks in the portfolio fell in sympathy with the broader market, which had it's worst day in more than four months, on the heels of news from Wal-Mart, which reported a 0.1 percent drop in same-sales stores. Main concern today was the strength of our retail-driven economy. We'll have to see what tomorrow brings. Our market indicators remain still firmly in the green. Also, looking at the price-volume action of our individual holdings, it was good to see that most of the declines came on less than +150% average daily volume. We plan to hold, unless we see more declines that trigger our stops. - 2006-11-15: Top Stock Pick Metretek Technologies Inc. (MEK) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio, which has seen some pretty healthy moves over the last several days. CROX seemed to have had a reversal day today, closing lower after moving into new high ground. CROX will likely consolidate here in the short term, since it has had a nearly +50% run over the last 7 weeks. Stocks like these have the potential to go on for much bigger moves, and so we plan on holding onto CROX a bit longer. Unless of course it shows other signs that it's run may be over.
With the market going into it's seasonaly strong year-end periods of November and December, it pays to be fully invested at this point. - 2006-11-13: Top Stock Pick Omrix Biopharmaceuticals Inc (OMRI) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio this morning. GSA Portfolio is now nearly fully invested with 16 holdings.
- 2006-10-30: Top Stock Picks candidate Mikron Infrared Inc (MIKR) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today.
- 2006-10-24: Top Stock Picks candidate Fuel-Tech Inc (FTEK) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today.
- 2006-10-20: Top Stock Pick AMREP Corp (AXR) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2006-10-16: Top Stock Pick Under Armour Inc (UARM) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today. Also, take a close look at the 1-year weekly chart of True Religion Apparel (TRLG) - a perfect cup and handle pattern breakout, if you ever saw one. Normally, we would have jumped on TRLG at the open in the morning, but with today's purchase of UARM, we now hold approximately 25% of the GSA Portfolio in the Textile group (ICON, CROX, GES). Adding any more to this industry may not be in our best interests of diversification.
Looking to find more names to add, because this market is telling us to be aggressively invested at this point in the game. - 2006-10-10: Past Top Stock Pick Google (GOOG) broke out yesterday from a 10% base, on improving accumulation / distribution and relative strength. We will be purchaser of GOOG today at the open. Although not inexpensive (from an overall valuation perspective), GOOG is cheaper today than what it was at the same price back in December 2005. Last year, we had a couple of very profitable trades in GOOG, and hope that streak continues.
- 2006-10-10: Top Stock Pick GOOG was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today.
- 2006-10-04: We sold out of our losing positions today, while the rest of the GSA Portfolio had a pretty strong day, just like the rest of the market. Maybe we have finally shaken off the summer doldrums, and will finish strong into the last quarter of the year. tomorrow, we will pyramid (add more shares) into some of the portfolion names that are working for us - ISE, SIMO, CROX and GES.
On the website front, we have added a few new features that you may have noticed - we now show historical relative strength and accumulation/distribution lines for the stocks in our database. We will probably add a few more indicators over time. - 2006-10-03: We will exit our losing energy positions at the market tomorrow: GLBL, BTJ and ARD. GROW also has shown poor accumulation in recent weeks and will also be sold.
- 2006-09-27: Top Stock Pick Crocs Inc (CROX) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2006-09-18: Top Stock Picks International Securities Exchange Holdings, Inc. (ISE) and Silicon Motion Technology Corp (SIMO) were purchased for the GSA Portfolio today.
After a horrid summer, the portfolio is beginning to show some life, but it may be too early to tell. Accumulation/distribution ranks of all the major indices has firmed up considerably over the last several weeks, which bodes well going forward. Would like to see a bit less volatility in some of the names we follow, since we are finding that it's easy to get tripped up quickly on down market days. We continue to maintain our under-invested portfolio position, until more names flash their buy signals. - 2006-09-11: Top Stock Pick U.S. Global Investors, Inc. (GROW) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today.
- 2006-09-05: Top Stock Picks candidate Global Industries Ltd (GLBL) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today.
- 2006-08-30: Top Pick Bolt Technology Corp (BTJ) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today.
- 2006-08-28: Top Stock Pick Ansoft Corporation (ANST) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today. ANST closed up +$1.04 on nearly 5 times average daily volume, a positive sign.
- 2006-08-14: The breakout in Arena Resources (ARD) seems to be failing. ARD broke its trailing stop-loss line on high volume today. We will be watching ARD closely tomorrow for signs of further weakness, since we are down -7% on this position.
- 2006-08-12: We were stopped out of Metretek Technologies (MEK) for a 20% loss. MEK reported better than expected quarterly results, lifted its 2006 sales guidance, reiterated a sustainable forward growth rate of 30% in EPS, but cut the top end of its 2006 earnings guidance, and hence the stock got hammered. Such is the current market environment.
- 2006-08-08: Top Stock Picks candidate Arena Resources, Inc (ARD) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today.
- 2006-08-04: Top Stock Pick candidate Guess? Inc (GES) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today on a breakout to new high ground on yesterday's close. The last time GES made our Top Picks list was last year - June 17, 2005 at $17.55. Within 6 months, GES went on to a high of $37.00. But that was then, and this is now.
- 2006-07-30: The market rallied a bit last week, showing at least some conviction that earnings will continue to be better than expected. The averages had their best weekly point gains going back a few years, with the S&P 500 reclaiming both it's 50-day and 200-day moving averages. How sustainable is this rally remains to be seen in the coming weeks.
Continuing the trend, once again fewer stocks (518) make our system for next week as compared to last week, not a big confidence booster to some of us, who build portfolios from the bottom-up, one stock at a time. Zero stocks meet our GSA Recommended Search Criteria filter on the main HI-EPSRS Database page, very different from from the last significant move up back in late 2005. Further, August has not been a stellar month in the history of the stock market, and so we will soon be up against seasonal headwinds. All this aside, we simply need to find stocks meeting our established principles of investing in fundamentally strong growth stocks at just the right time. We are just not there yet. - 2006-07-25: Top Stock Pick holding MEK has recovered a bit over the last few days, probably on anticipation of yesterday's news announcement of $5M in new projects to it's PowerSecure subsidiary. Still below where we purchased MEK for the GSA Portfolio.
The overall market reversed intraday today to close up after spending the early session in negative territory. Both the Dow and the S&P reclaimed their 50-day moving averages. We will soon find out if this brief rally has sustainable legs. We ran a quick scan of all stocks in our database that closed up on +150% average volume, and came up with only 9% (50 out of 538) of stocks. That's not the kind of breadth we should see in a healthy market. Staying with our single holding for now, until more stocks present themselves. - 2006-07-23: Our single Top Stock Picks candidate Metretek Technologies (MEK) reclaimed it's 50-day moving average and closed the week above it, a positive sign. We are still in negative territory on this trade, and have stops in place below key support levels.
The market rallied sharply last Wednesday on positive comments by Fed chief Bernanke, but gave back almost all these gains over the next two days, indicating a lack of any significant follow through buying action. Once again, we see a decline in the number of stocks (538) making our database this week. Nothing else to do but continue to remain watchful from the sidelines. - 2006-07-15: The market ended the week on a three-day losing streak, with the major averages not having lost this much in any three-day period during the last several months. Declining issues outpaced advancers on the NYSE by more than a 2-to-1 margin. The only solace (if any) we see, is that historically, July has not been a terrible month for the markets. Since 1951, the Dow has risen 60% of the time in the month of July, for an average monthly return of 1.1% (see our Market Direction page). So far, the Dow has returned -3.7% in July, so there is an opportunity to make up some ground here. Again, not making any predictions, simply observing what we have seen.
On our database side, 576 stocks make the cut for next week, almost 100 less than last week. Clearly there has been deterioration in the number of stocks near their 52-week highs, an integral part of our filter, since we only focus on leading stocks. Our only holding MEK is down along with everything else, and we may bail out next week on further weakness. - 2006-07-11: HITT was sold from the GSA Portfolio at a loss of -13%. Our only other position, MEK faired better, up almost +5% today. We will look to pyramid up some more into MEK on Wednesday, following the signals generated by our Auto Portfolio algorithm.
- 2006-07-10: Top stock pick HITT has violated our stop-loss limit and will be sold at the market on Tuesday.
- 2006-07-05: Top Stock Picks candidate Hittite Microwave Corporation (HITT) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today. Approximately 5% of the portfolio was invested into HITT. In this market environment, it pays to gradually scale into a position, while maintaining tight stops.
- 2006-07-03: Top Stock Pick Metretek Technologies (MEK) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today. We are looking closely at Hittite Microwave Corporation (HITT) as another purchase to add to our portfolio on Wednesday. HITT made our Auto Portfolio filter and we may post HITT as a Top Stock Pick tomorrow if the additional research to be performed pans out. Happy 4th to all of you!
- 2006-06-25: Charts of a few stocks look interesting here: The First Marblehead Corporation (FMD) and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), but with our market indicators still very much in the bearish camp, we are reluctant to initiate any new purchases.
There hasn't been a follow-though day on the Dow or the S&P 500 since their brief rally on June 14-15, 2006. The market will be marking time this week until the Fed announces it's anticipated 25 basis point hike for the seventeenth time on Thursday. Again, we don't need to speculate on what the Fed will do, but simply observe what the market does in response to the Fed. An expansion in the number of stocks breaking out to new highs is what we need. In reality, what we've seen is just the opposite - fewer stocks have made our database compared to a few months ago, which means that more stocks are off more than 20% from their highs or have lost relative strength. Sticking to 100% cash in the meantime. - 2006-06-21: We exited our position in Home Solutions of America (HOM) at a loss of about -40%. Way too many questions surround HOM regarding misrepresentation of facts as indicated by lawsuit(s) filed today. Our two trades in HOM this year netted +71% and -40% respectively for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2006-06-20: The Dow Jones Industrial Average currently is the only major index that is keeping it's head above the 200 day moving average at 10888. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite have both breached this key support level in recent weeks. Current market characteristics show the absence of any quality breakouts to put cash to work. We also observe a decline in the accumulation distribution rank (currently 1.14) of all the stocks in our database this week.
We continue to maintain our +90% cash position in light of present conditions, knowing fully well that this situation could change at any time. When opportunities abound, it usually takes only a few days to build a new portfolio of 10-20 quality names. - 2006-06-13: Well, we have been watching the market action quietly from the sidelines (except for our secong trading position in HOM, which hasn't worked out well). Overall, very happy to have sat out this recent correction with a +90% cash position. All three market indices now trade below their 200-day moving averages, with the Naz down the most. This morning at 8:30a, economic data for retail sales and PPI were announced. The stock futures pared some of their earlier losses, because PPI rose less than expected, while core PPI rose more than expected. So the market MAY rally a bit here, which brings us to our next point.
You can analyze and predict the market all you want, with projections that the Dow will bottom sometime in the fall, or that this is only a correction, and not the start of a bear market, or whatever. But all you really need to know is what the market is doing at this point, shown by the action of leading stocks. When the time is right, as always, there will be more quality names breaking out into new high ground. When the time is wrong, the reverse usually holds true. We will never pick the exact top or bottom of any move, but there are enough opportunities to profit from in the middle of the move. However, any serious self-directed investor needs to watch this action on a daily basis, because changes often happen quickly. Hopefully, we now have these monitoring tools in place for your use. On the website front, we have included a couple of new features - our ETF Zone now lets you see charts of ETFs across the globe. You may want to watch some of these global markets, if more diversification to your portfolio is needed. ETFs trade just like stocks, and so fit in well with our overall philosophy of buying a select group of 10-20 stocks. Secondly, on our Market Direction page, we have included three ETFs that mirror the three indices (S&P500, DJIA, Nasdaq Composite). You can clearly see the poor accumulation-distribution ranks of the market using these charts. Until this situation changes, we continue to enjoy our time-off from trading. - 2006-06-02: We are going to selectively move back into the market today, based on weaker than expected May payrolls data that could allay inflation fears on the Street. We have an order to purchase shares of our recent favorite Top Pick Home Solutions of America (HOM) at the open today. HOM had a nice high-volume move yesterday as well as bounced off its 50-day moving average.
- 2006-05-17: Past Top Stock Picks HOM, GRP and ARD were sold from the GSA Portfolio today at +71%, -17% and -12% respectively.
- 2006-05-16: As predicted, current Top Stock Pick HOM had a great day today, gapping up +11% on extremely heavy volume. In fact, volume was so heavy, in excess of 5.37 million shares traded, that today marked the heaviest volume day in HOM's history. The gap up was good, but the fact that HOM actually had a lower close than it's open, marked it as a reversal day on high volume. So we need to watch it closely over the next 1-2 days. A continuation into new high ground on good volume will put to rest any technical concerns with HOM. But if she stutters here, closing today's gap or simply taking out today's low of $11.7 might be reason to book our profits. A nearly +80% gain in 10+ weeks is not too shabby, specially with what the market has to offer lately.
Both GRP and ARD again didn't act very well today. GRP at -12% will likely be removed from the GSA Portfolio soon. Overall, the GSA Portfolio rose +1.79% for the day. - 2006-05-15: Past Top Picks GRMN, BOOM and BTUI were sold from the GSA Portfolio at +24%, -25% and -18% respectively. GRMN was sold as it met it's upside profit target. BOOM and BTUI were sold on violations of key support areas, as well as being more than 20% below their 52 week highs. As always, our strategy is to buy stocks that are close to or at new highs, after breaking out from a sideways consolidation period. When the reverse holds true, we sell, sometimes a bit late, but sell we do. Following a plan and sticking to our strategy is the key element here.
On a more positive note, HOM reported adjusted Q1 earnings of $0.06/sh vs. $0.04/sh a year ago, in-line with expectations. HOM also raised 2006 revenue and earnings forecast and rose +14% after the bell. Should be a good day for HOM tomorrow (no guarantees). - 2006-05-14: The GSA Portfolio took a hit Friday, down -3.6% vs -1.27 for the NASDAQ. The averages actually masked the magnitude of deciines in individual stocks and sectors, as shown by the abundance of RED on our Industry Map page. For the week, the Dow fell 1.7%, while the Nasdaq dropped 4.2% and the S&P 500 slipped 2.6%. The main concern for the market is now inflation, and usually small cap stocks are most susceptible in such an environment. Next weeks release of consumer and producer price data will likely dictate the tone of the market.
Our holdings BOOM and BTUI are now more than 20% off their highs, and will be watched carefully for further weakness. - 2006-05-10: We were stopped out of past Top Stock Pick American Science & Engineering Inc (ASEI) for a flat +0.5% gain. As mentioned in our portfolio comments two days ago, the price action on ASEI is simply not right, and so we sold. One of the first rules of investing is capital preservation. You have to be able to come back to fight another day. ASEI had quickly risen +26% within a few weeks from our original buy point back on Feb 2, 2006, but then began to falter. Some trades will just work out this way.
- 2006-05-08: Top Stock Pick Helix Energy Solutions Group (HELX) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today. HELX closed up +1.16 - always a good sign when your position shows a profit right from day 1.
Notable winners in the portfolio today included HOM, up +0.78 on 248% average volume. GRMN also rose +1.09 on a average volume. All other positions closed in the red, specially our oil sector plays. Overall the GSA Portolio closed the day flat, just like the indices. Fed meeting on Wednesday will likely provide more direction to the market. The one holding we are concerned about most is ASEI, which closed down another -3.56, continuing it's three-day slide. ASEI now sits 19% below it's 52-week high, it's accumulation rank has fallen below 1.0, and ASEI has violated both the 10-week moving average and the GSA stop-loss line. We are going to hold here for another day or so, to see if ASEI bounces back from these levels. Can't explain the price action on ASEI, given it's fundamentals and the market it's in. With earnings due out May 19, 2006, maybe the market knows better. Still want to hold ASEI though, since our position is still in the green. - 2006-04-28: We sold our positions in past Top Stock Picks KNDL at +27%, CYBS at +4.75% and NTES at +0.5%. KNDL was sold because it hit our upside profit target. CYBS and NTES were both sold on failure to hold above their 50-day moving averages.
- 2006-04-26: Past Top Stock Pick Kendle International, Inc (KNDL) today made a new high on only 44% average daily volume. As you know by now, we hate to hold on to stocks that show this kind of action. We will be a seller of KNDL Thursday barring any breaking positive news before the bell. We are up +33% in KNDL after 9+ weeks of holding.
- 2006-04-20: Top Stock Pick Candidate Grant Prideco Inc (GRP) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today on a breakout from a base pattern. GRP is in the 3rd highest ranked group in our database this week - Oil and Gas Equipment & Services.
After two back-to-back days of solid +2% or more gains, the GSA Portfolio gave back some profits today, down -1.28% for the day. Of note, HOM expanded it's relationship with The Home Depot, and closed up +7.2%. Also, after the bell, BTUI beat Q1 estimates by $0.03, and was up +5% in after-hours trading. Our oil sector holdings both finished lower for the day: ARD down -6.6% and GRP down -2.4%. - 2006-04-18: Good, strong broad-based market rally today as minutes from the last Fed meeting indicates that the rate hikes may end. Almost every industry tracked by us landed in the green today, indicating the breadth of the rally. Advances led declines by almost a 4:1 ratio on the NYSE. The biggest winner among the indices was the Nasdaq, up +1.95%.
The GSA Portfolio also had it's day in the sun, up +2.21%. Glad that our individual stock picks led us to an almost fully invested position as of yesterday. Not much else to do at this point, but to enjoy these positive market days. Still would like to see a few more breakouts soon. - 2006-04-17: Top Stock Picks candidate BTU International Inc (BTUI) was purchased for the GSA portfolio this morning.
- 2006-04-11: Stocks tumbled today on fears over rising inflation and higher gas prices over the coming summer months. The Nasdaq finished down nearly 1% at the close, and has lost approximately 2% since last Thursday.
The GSA Portfolio actually eked out a small +0.2% gain, helped by Home Solutions of America (HOM), which announced $40M in new orders, and by Arena Resources (ARD), our rising gas prices play. HOM was up +10.5% while ARD was up +5.5% today. To see the elusive cup-and-handle chart pattern breakout, check out ARD's daily or weekly chart on our site. On the downside, American Science and Engineering (ASEI) lost -4% today, continuing it's 7-day slide. It is amazing to see a stock like ASEI being marked down like this. Still holding but waiting for a bounce back from these levels. - 2006-04-07: We will be taking a position in past Top Stock Pick Dynamic Materials Corporation (BOOM) this Friday morning. BOOM broke out of a 10-wk basing pattern on brisk volume, after correcting about 17% within this base. BOOM was also first featured as a Top Stock Pick back in December 2005.
- 2006-04-07: Top Stock Picks candidate BOOM was purchased for the GSA Portfolio this morning.
- 2006-04-03: Top Stock Pick Arena Resources Inc (ARD) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today.
- 2006-03-29: Past Top Stock Pick True Religion Apparel (TRLG) was sold from the GSA Portfolio at a profit of +8%. American Science & Engineering (ASEI) could become a candidate for a longer-term play, up +26% in a little over 7 weeks. Time will tell.
Today's market action was encouraging. The GSA Portfolio rose +1.3% vs +1.45% for the NASDAQ and +0.55% for the Dow. Waiting to see if this uptick can sustain itself over the next few days. More importantly, waiting for fresh breakouts to show themselves. - 2006-03-28: We do not like the price and volume action of past Top Stock Pick True Religion Apparel (TRLG) at this point. TRLG now trades with an accumulation distribution of 0.79, is below its 50-day moving average line, is more than 20% below its 52-week high, is losing momentum, and hence must be sold. We are up about +9% in TRLG, but with the market serving up very few opportunities, it will not hurt to raise more cash in the GSA Portfolio.
- 2006-03-26: Thought we would find a few Top Stock Picks to put money into Monday, specially when our market indicator signal turned bullish, and we saw an expansion in the number of base breakouts. The charts of NCTY (we are already exposed to internet gaming), HOM (currently in GSA portfolio), NGPS (not enough bottom-line growth), DRQ (small base breakout) and NFLX (too much institutional ownership) looked interesting, but couldn't pull the trigger on them due to the reasons outlined. Please remain patient - the market is quite frustrating at times.
We also exited our losing position in ADAM Friday for a -26% loss, on failing to hold above its 200 day moving average. We should have exited on the initial gap down. - 2006-03-21: We are still unable to find too many opportunities to add to the GSA Portfolio. Past Top Stock Pick ASEI has acted well - up +24% in 5 weeks, and may be a candidate for a longer-term position. NTES rose +6.18 on 176% average daily volume, on a 4 for 1 stock split announcement. Although we know that stock splits do nothing to the underlying value of a stock, with NTES, the market thinks otherwise.
On the flip side, ADAM gapped down last week on less than steller quarterly earnings and is trying to find support at its 200-day MA line. We are down a lousy -23% in ADAM as a result of the gap action. We will likely exit ADAM on a break below its 200-day line. - 2006-03-13: Top Stock Picks candidate Home Solutions of America (HOM) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today. The lack of substantial new breakouts continues to serve as a cautionary note in this market, although the GSA Portfolio rose +1.17% vs +0.22% for the NASDAQ. The portfolio was helped mainly by a +8.88% move in ADAM and +4.42% in TRLG. We are close to hitting our profit target of +25% on TRLG. Let us see if the market cooperates a bit here.
- 2006-03-09: We were stopped out of previous Top Picks LifeCell Corp (LIFC) and Parlux Fragrances (PARL) for a loss of -11% and -17% respectively. About the only thing going right with the GSA Portfolio right now is the fact that we are sticking to our sell rules, cutting our losses and raising cash in this market environment. Good thing we had a stellar January, and are still ahead substantially for the year. Waiting for the good old days to return!
- 2006-03-07: Top Stock Pick LifeCell Corp (LIFC) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today. Has been a tough environment out there over the last few weeks. The pickings are slim as fresh new breakouts are far and few between. Remember to maintain tight stops on any long positions.
- 2006-03-06: Top Stock Picks candidate Garmin Ltd (GRMN) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio this morning. GRMN closed up +1.21 on brisk trade on a down market day.
Tomorrow's Top Stock Pick LifeCell Corp (LIFC) is breaking out of a sideways price consolidation period, and is testing it's old 52-week highs. We will pull the trigger on purchasing LIFC tomorrow, unless preceded by a negative earnings news report - LIFC scheduled to announce 4Q earnings at 8:00 am, so expect some volatility. - 2006-02-28: We were stopped out of past Top Stock Pick Berry Petroleum (BRY) at a loss of -9%. Recent Top Pick American Science and Engineering (ASEI) rose +1.53 on 257% average volume - a positive sign on such a down market day. Overall the GSA Portfolio lost -0.5% compared with a loss of -1.12% for the Nasdaq.
Remember Lefevre in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, "It was never my thinking that made big money. It was always my sitting." It is time to sit tight, watch the price action of leading stocks daily and move only when there is money lying in the corner waiting to be picked up. - 2006-02-27: Top Stock Picks candidate Netease.com (NTES) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today.
- 2006-02-27: Past Top Stock Picks candidate Berry Petroleum (BRY) has violated both the 50-day MA line at $68, and the GSA Stop Loss line at $67.77 on further weakness in the Oil sector. We have stops in place to exit our investment in BRY at a -10% loss.
Today's Top Stock Pick Netease.com (NTES) rose +2.57 on 177% average daily volume. A confirmation of a purchase at the correct buy point is when your position shows a profit right from the very first day. - 2006-02-15: Past Top Stock Picks candidate Pioneer Drilling Co (PDC) was sold from the GSA Portfolio at a loss of -13% on a breakdown below its 50-day Moving Average, violation of the GSA stop-loss line, and drop in its accumulation distribution rank.
New Top Stock Pick Kendle International (KNDL) had a great breakout yesterday on positive guidance by the company. We will be a buyer of KNDL this morning. - 2006-02-15: Top Stock Picks candidate Kendle International Inc (KNDL) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today.
We also launched a new feature recently - "My Auto Portfolio" which allows you to maintain your own version of the GSA Auto Portfolio. We found that the GSA Auto Portfolio was often fully invested, and no new buy signals got shown, even though there existed stocks that met the buy rules. Now, you can better utilize new buy signals generated in your own version of the Auto Portfolio, as well as control your initial portfolio size. - 2006-02-13: Absolute horrible market action over the last few sessions. Pioneer Drilling Company (PDC) is down -11.9% in the GSA Portfolio, and will be sold at the market tomorrow, based on our stop-loss rules. ASEI is also close to violating our target sell level. Overall the GSA Portfolio was down -1.32% vs -0.98% for the Nasdaq. The only good news is that we are sitting on a 50% cash position in this market environment.
Ours is not to predict what happens next, but to wait and watch and act upon what has been presented to us. - 2006-02-08: Top Stock Picks candidate American Science & Engineering Inc (ASEI) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2006-02-01: We were stopped out of Google, Inc. (GOOG) for a -13% loss.
- 2006-01-30: Top Stock Picks candidate CyberSource Corp (CYBS) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today.
- 2006-01-27: We have entered stops on our position in Google (GOOG) at a price of $414, which is -3% below it's 50-day moving average of $427, and -7% below our last purchase price of $446. We plan on adjusting this -3% below 50-day MA target daily. Hope the stop doesn't trigger, and GOOG resumes/continues it's move northwards.
- 2006-01-26: Past Top Stock Picks BBC, HANS and LUFK were sold out of the GSA Portfolio for profits of +81%, +54% and +16%, respectively. If only the remainder of 2006 can be as profitable as January...
- 2006-01-25: Don't like this market tape one bit - too many one-day reversals all around. Tomorrow, we will book our significant profits in BBC (one-day reversal off a new-high), HANS (no follow-through action after the high volume day last week), LUFK (another one-day reversal off a new high). Keep in mind that these one-day reversal patterns often turn out to be short-term signals only. If that happens to be the case, we can always jump right back in. However, they also often signal the end of a clearly defined trend. Just sticking by our rules - right or wrong.
- 2006-01-24: AnSoft Corporation (ANST) was sold from the GSA Portfolio at a loss of -11%. It bounced back today, but there's no point in second guessing our decision. We followed our sell rules and sold when our maximum stop-loss limit was reached.
Bodisen Biotech (BBC) has been on a tear the last few weeks, up another +$2.71 today. We are sitting on a nice +85% gain, in a little over 8 weeks. It's time to be a pig - let's see how well we can milk this one. - 2006-01-23: We will exit our position in AnSoft Corporation (ANST) at the market tomorrow, since ANST broke down below it's 50-day MA last week and hasn't recovered, as well as we being down -11% in this position.
Google (GOOG) bounced back very well today to barely reclaim it's 50-day MA. Let's see if it manages a hold above this support level. Time to be patient once again, and keep any losses to a minimum. - 2006-01-20: OptionsExpress Holdings Inc (OXPS) was sold at +26% from the GSA Portfolio. OXPS reversed off a new high today, as well as made multiple new highs on low volume this week.
- 2006-01-17: Top Stock Picks candidate Berry Petroleum Co (BRY) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2006-01-12: Past Top Stock Pick The Lamson & Sessions Co (LMS) was sold from the GSA Portfolio at a profit of +76% after 18 weeks of holding. Great start to the New Year first with HURC and now LMS!
- 2006-01-11: Past Top Stock Pick The Lamson & Seesions Co. (LMS) today reversed off a new high on heavy volume, as well as violated its GSA Stop-Loss line. We will be exiting our position in LMS tomorrow morning. Currently, we are up +72.9% in this position.
- 2006-01-10: Past Top Stock Picks HURC and EXP were sold from the GSA Portfolio at a profit of +43% and +7% respectively.
- 2006-01-09: Top Stock Picks candidate Pioneer Drilling Co (PDC) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio this morning.
- 2006-01-09: We will be taking profits in the following previous Top Stock Picks: Hurco Companies Inc (HURC) and Eagle Materials Inc (EXP), both for similar reasons. Last week HURC made at least two new highs on anemic volume. Today, the stock reversed on much higher volume. Similarly, EXP today made a new high on very low volume, and also has a poor GSA Rank. There is no better indicator that spots the top or the end of an uptrend better than new highs on low volume. Of course, no indicator is fool-proof, which is why we reserve the right to jump back into the stock if rights itself again. However, it is better to protect your profits now and act upon your sell rules. We are sitting on proifts of +44% on HURC, and +8.9% on EXP.
- 2006-01-06: Top Stock Picks ADAM Inc. (ADAM) and Ansoft Corp (ANST) were purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2006-01-05: Top Stock Picks candidate True Religion Apparel (TRLG) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2006-01-04: We jumped back into Google (GOOG) on a breakout to new highs this morning.
- 2006-01-03: On a day like this, was hoping to find at least a few solid new breakouts to put fresh money into, but no such luck. Still far too few breakouts making the cut. FFIV looks like an interesting chart pattern setup, but with more than 95% of the stock controlled by institutions, ownership is way too high. GOOG acted well today - we'll wait to see if she breaks out.
Overall, happy to hold our existing positions - the GSA Portolio with a 46% cash position rose +2.7% for the day, easily outpointing the averages. However, the lack of new ideas continues to lean us towards selling and profit taking rather than buying. Let the market show it's hand. - 2005-12-29: IRIS International Inc (IRIS) refuses to recover from under its 50-day MA and GSA Stop Loss line. You normally want to give a stock a few days to correct itself after a technical breakdown. We will exit our position in IRIS today for a small profit.
- 2005-12-29: Iris International Inc (IRIS) was sold from the GSA Portfolio for a small +2% gain.
- 2005-12-28: Somanetics Corporation (SMTS) was sold from the GSA Portfolio at a profit of +36%. Earlier in the year we had a +27% trade in SMTS. Don't want to push our luck to try and get much more out of it.
- 2005-12-27: Neutraceutical International Corp (NUTR) was sold from the GSA Portfolio at a profit of +45%, while Charles & Colvard Ltd (CTHR) was sold out at a loss of -23%.
- 2005-12-21: Past Top Stock Pick Akamai Technologies (AKAM) was sold from the GSA Portfolio at a profit of +27% after 11 weeks of holding.
- 2005-12-20: We sold our position in past Top Pick Google (GOOG) today for a +27% gain. We don't like to see stocks reversing off new highs and so we sold. As always, remember that you can always buy back a stock you sold, if your decision to sell was wrong, and the price action of the stock remained right.
IRIS seems to have bottomed out short-term. We are still up +4.5% on this position, and so we'll give it a few more sessions. AKAM is close to hitting our profit target of +25%, and we'll sell it soon given this market tape. Nothing else exciting going on right now. - 2005-12-19: Google (GOOG) reversed off a new 52-week high on heavy volume - not a healthy sign. Since we are sitting on approximately a +25% profit on GOOG for a second time this year, we will be exiting our position at the market tomorrow. Iris International, Inc (IRIS) also violated both it's 50-day MA and the GSA Stop-Loss line. We will exit IRIS on further weakness.
No other high quality breakouts in the market recently, so no new funds to be invested at this point. - 2005-12-12: Top Stock Pick Lufkin Industries Inc. (LUFK) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio this morning.
- 2005-11-29: American Oriental Bioengineering Inc. (AOB) was sold from the GSA Portfolio today at a loss of -21%.
- 2005-11-28: Top Stock Picks candidate Bodisen Biotech Inc. (BBC) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today.
- 2005-11-28: Past Top Stock Pick AOB will be sold from the GSA Portfolio on it violating both the 50-day MA and GSA Stop Loss lines. SMTS is also sitting right at its 50-day MA and will be closely monitored for support at this level. Today's purchase, BBC actually held up well and rose +$0.4 on heavy volume. Overall a brutal day in the market, with the GSA Portfolio down -2.4% vs -1.04% for the NASDAQ.
- 2005-11-23: Top Stock Pick Charles & Colvard Ltd. (CTHR) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today.
- 2005-11-21: Past Top Stock Pick American Oriental Bioengineering Inc. (AOB) closed lower today on a strong up-day in the market - not a great sign. We will exit our position in AOB on a break 3% below its 50-day MA of $5.33. Overall, the GSA Portfolio rose 0.97% vs. 0.66% for the NASDAQ.
On another note, we will not post a new Top Stock Pick simply because more than a few days have passed since our last Pick. We really, really need to be comfortable with a stock's fundamentals, technicals and chart pattern before investing into it. So, your patience is greatly appreciated. - 2005-11-16: UBET was sold from the GSA Portfolio at a loss of -15%. Waited enough time for this one to recover.
- 2005-11-14: Top Stock Picks candidate Hurco Companies Inc. (HURC) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today.
- 2005-11-10: Top Stock Picks optionsXpress Holdings Inc (OXPS) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today.
- 2005-11-07: Top Stock Picks candidate American Oriental Bioengineering Inc (AOB) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today.
- 2005-11-03: Top Stock Picks candidate Hansen Natural Corp (HANS) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio today.
- 2005-11-02: Today was the kind of market day that we've been looking for - an expansion in the number and quality of stocks breaking out, the S&P 500 reclaiming it's 200 day MA, and the GSA Portfolio outperforming the averages again.
We will be a purchaser of new Top Stock Picks addition Hansen Natural Corp. (HANS) at the market tomorrow. HANS has triple digit quarterly %EPS numbers, a 58.54% ROE, an upside breakaway gap, coupled with a breakout from a flat 18% base pattern. Quite difficult to ignore. - 2005-10-29: Good strong day for the market on Friday, as well as for the GSA Portfolio. However, the S&P 500 failed to break through its 200 day MA. The DJIA is also trading below this widely followed indicator. Although, we saw a marked increase in the number of breakouts in our database, and a bullish market signal, we did not find anything to like very much. Hopefully, this will change any day, and we will be there to jump on the right stock breakouts.
Take for example the price and volume action on Google, Inc. (GOOG), a current Top Stock Pick holding in the GSA Portfolio. On Friday, it made a new 52-week high on lower than average daily volume - NOT a good sign. If this weren't GOOG, we'd be tempted to sell at the market Monday. We'll give it a day or so more, but we will definetely bail out (at a small profit) on any further signs of weakness. Patience at this point is warranted. More importantly, nail down profits on price targets being met. - 2005-10-25: Past Top Stock FLSH was sold from the GSA Portfolio at a profit of +26%. We also pyramided into IRIS - buying follow-up shares if the stock rises 3%-6% from it's original purchase price. Both these actions were guided by the trading rules spit out by our Auto Portfolio algorithm.
- 2005-10-24: Follow-up purchases were made in Google, Inc. (GOOG) at the open this morning.
- 2005-10-24: Past Top Stock Pick M-Systems Flash Disk Pioneers Ltd. (FLSH) has increased +27% in a little over 12 weeks of holding, hitting our price target established at purchase time. FLSH looked very strong today and may run a point or two more this week. However, we will be a seller of FLSH tomorrow to lock-in profits.
Despite today's strong day in the market, we still would like to see more breakout stocks to add to the GSA Portfolio. Until that point, we're perfectly content to nail down a few profits along the way. - 2005-10-22: We will be adding to our position in past Top Stock Pick Google, Inc. (GOOG) Monday morning. We feel the huge breakout that occured Friday on blowout revenue and earnings numbers is significant. The hope is to play out GOOG as a longer-term core holding. Also, pyramiding up (never down) is key to channeling your money into stocks that are working.
FLSH is nearing it's profit target of +25%. In this market, remember to grab meaningful profits when you have them. - 2005-10-19: ASEI was sold from the GSA Portfolio at a profit of +21%.
- 2005-10-18: Past Top Stock Pick ASEI has hit it's profit target of +25% in a little over 9 weeks. ASEI had a great early run right after purchase, so we will hold a bit longer. Also, ASEI is finding support right at it's 50-day MA, a good sign. However, a break 3% below this level will create a sell signal as per our trading rules.
The GSA Portfolio has recovered well after last week's sell-off. We are still not overly enthused by the lack of fresh breakouts in this market. No new money to be committed unless we see an expansion in this breakouts number. - 2005-10-14: ENG, CLF, SGDE, SNHY, UNT were sold from the GSA Portfolio.
- 2005-10-13: GSA Portfolio was hammered down -3.27% today - worst day in a long time. Absolutely bearish market action (remember it is October) tells us it is time to get defensive. All stocks that have violated their GSA trailing stop loss lines will be sold at the market Friday - ENG, CLF, SGDE, SNHY, UNT. Let's raise some cash now, and come back later to fight another day.
- 2005-10-12: No doubt about it, this is a tough market environment. Both the Dow and S&P are now trading significantly below their 200-day moving averages. Our best performer at this point ASEIis up +25%, Our worst performer XWG is down -21%. We will be a seller of XWG on further weakness today. No need to commit new money in this environment, until the right stocks show their hand. Time to be cautious and patient.
- 2005-10-12: XWG was sold from the GSA Portfolio at a loss of -26%.
- 2005-10-05: Top Stock Pick IRIS was purchased for the GSA Portfolio.
- 2005-10-04: Medical Appliances, Scientific & Technical Instruments and Semiconductors seemed to be the few bright spots in the market today, showing strength in an otherwise down day. Our Top Stock Picks IRIS International Inc (IRIS) is a member of the Scientific & Technical Instruments and broke out of a 23% basing pattern on very brisk trading volume. Overall the GSA Porfolio lost -0.16% vs. -0.75% for the Nasdaq - just the kind of action we want to see, along with outperformance on the upside.
Also, keep an eye on Monday's Top Stock Pick NTRI - it raised revenue guidance very, very significantly after the bell. NTRI was up +16% in After Hours trading. - 2005-10-03: Top Stock Picks NTRI and AKAM were purchased for the GSA Portfolio this morning.
- 2005-10-02: Top Stock Picks NutriSystem Inc (NTRI) and Akamai Technologies (AKAM) will be purchased for the GSA Portfolio Monday. NTRI has had a bit of a run, but still broke out from a tight 15% base. AKAM is breaking out of a long multi-year base.
Also on Friday, current holding Middleby Corp (MIDD) rose +$2.45 to a new 52-week high on anemic volume of 34% compared to its average volume - a new high on low turnover. We will be a seller of MIDD Monday, at approximately +18% profit. - 2005-09-30: Cutera (CUTR) was sold from the GSA Portfolio at a profit of +38% after 9+ weeks.
- 2005-09-29: Cutera Inc (CUTR) made a new high on low volume today, not a good sign at all. The strongest stocks in it's group also rose a paltry +0.42%. With CUTR up +36% over 9-weeks in our portfolio, we will be nailing down profits at the open tomorrow. New highs on low volume usually indicate no demand for a stock at these levels. Sell without emotion.
- 2005-09-26: No new high-quality stock breakouts to position into. In this environment, we need to take our 25-30% profits when we have them. Going to hold ASEI (+31%) and CUTR (+28%) a bit longer. GSA Portfolio up a healthy +2.91% vs +0.22% for the NASDAQ today. Look for an expansion in the number of new breakouts before new money can be committed.
- 2005-09-19: Top Stock Pick Cleveland-Cliffs, Inc (CLF) was added to the GSA Portfolio this morning. LSCP was removed from the GSA Portfolio at a loss of -22%.
- 2005-09-17: Perfect cup and handle breakout on Top Stock Pick Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF) yesterday. The only negative against CLF is the high level of institutional ownership, but with a chart pattern like it has, we need to jump on it. CLF also made our Auto Portfolio filter, along with SMTS which was purchased yesterday.
We will be selling JUPM at a loss Monday to make room for CLF, since the GSA Portfolio is fully invested. - 2005-09-16: We sold Jupitermedia Corp (JUPM) for a loss of -25%. Held on for a lot longer than we should have. This is the emotional side of trading that needs to be controlled.
To address this, today we introduced a new feature - the Auto Portfolio, which puts all our buy and sell rules into practice on a $200,000 portfolio. Trading signals are automated and unemotional. See it in action for yourself - your feedback will be appreciated. - 2005-09-16: We took a repeat position in past Top Stock Pick Somanetics Corp (SMTS), as previously stated that we would. SMTS has a great breakout today, and the Medical Appliance & Equipment group is also looking strong. Last time SMTS gave us a quick +27%. Hope she repeats.
- 2005-09-12: Top Stock Pick EnGlobal Corp (ENG) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio this morning.
- 2005-09-12: We took a small trading position in past Top Stock Pick Google (GOOG) on a breakout from a small 8-week base.
- 2005-09-08: Top Stock Pick Lamson & Sessions Co. (LMS) was purchased for the GSA Portfolio this morning.
- 2005-09-07: Past Top Stock Pick WebSide Story (WSSI) has gone up +25% from our purchase price 9 weeks ago. We will be a seller of WSSI
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