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Top Stock Picks Portfolio Comments2022-11-08: We have a signal to move out of **** and into ****. Current Stock Portfolio Positions: |
| | Stock Earnings Q&A View Select Entries from Our Mailbag. Also See Our Q&A Page.Q: Dear GSA Team: I'm a returning customer and I'm glad to notice that in the past couple of years the performance of GSA portfolio has been significantly improved. At the same time I see the same old problem with many trades which also significantly lowers the hit rate: Your continue to buy stocks near the reporting dates. We all know that street reaction to earnings reports is always unpredictable and even the brightest reports can often result in a sell off. It is true that sometimes one can get a hefty profit by jumping on a bandwagon right before the report (like in the recent RIMM case), but in my opinion such style is neither investing, neither trading and just plane gambling. Personally I NEVER BUY A STOCK IF THERE IS 30 OR LESS CALENDAR DAYS LEFT TO THE REPORT and I strongly recommend doing the same to everyone. If you followed that simple rule you could avoid such losing trades as MIND, HWCC (2007), TRAD, RNWK, or UA (2006) just to name a few. These were good stocks and the problem with them was neither the companies themselves, neither your trading method, but abnormal¯ (quote-unquote because market is always right) market reaction to their earnings report. You can easily see the benefits of 'the 30-day rule'¯ if you backtest your portfolio with it implied. I think that it's in our common interest that you follow it in the future. A: Hi, We'd like to investigate your recommendations on the earnings data some more. Do you have any empirical sources that confirm whether buying close to earnings is not a correct strategy. One would think that the volatility around earnings would work both ways - on the upside and downside. Also, sometimes the market will sense a good upcoming report, and begin to move the stock up several days or weeks prior to the actual release, and then maybe sell off a bit. Although we agree that we need to keep the earnings date in perspective, we are not sure if we should follow a blanket rule of not buying a stock before earnings, without more analysis. (Missing out on RIMM comes to mind here). Best regards, GSA << Previous Q&A Next Q&A >>
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